In a potential indication of financial softening from the industrial heartland, dwelling building in the country’s major production regions registered declines to a year-over-year foundation in the next quarter of 2019, in accordance with this National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). When the production industry was demonstrating stronger expansion in 2017, the speed of home building in counties with relatively significant stocks of local production job outpaced the rest of the country.

“The HBGI data show that the manufacturing sector of the economy has been gradually losing steam since 2017 and there has been a corresponding drop in new home construction in counties where manufacturing employment is most concentrated,” stated NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “This correlation indicates that as housing goes, so goes the economy.”

The next quarterly launch of this HBGI targets the home markets at the top manufacturing businesses, which represent 10 percentage of the country’s single-family manufacturing output and 6-7 percentage of multifamily construction.

Home construction in these regions posted a decrease in the first half 2019, and next quarter statistics show that single- and multifamily structure decreased by 3.8 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, onto a case-by-case foundation.

The HBGI is a quarterly dimension of construction conditions throughout the nation and uses county-level details about single- and multifamily licenses to gauge housing building growth in various rural and urban areas.

Other remarkable findings in the next quarter HBGI show that single-family building in rural regions and exurbs are level, although there are definite declines in other areas, especially big metro suburbs.

“The analysis of the NAHB geographic tracking of home construction trends is a reminder of the challenges that the housing affordability crisis presents for larger markets, where a dearth of buildable lots and stricter zoning regulations are putting upward pressure on home prices,” stated NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a house builder and developer from Torrington, Conn.

The HBGI additionally discovered that flat building continues to decrease in big metro center and big metro suburban places. Growth in flat building, however, is found in exurban, little metro and much more rural locations.

Please see nahb.org/hbgi for tables, historical data and information.

Jeff Thornton